New Mexico
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
4  Alice Wright JR 19:13
18  Calli Thackery SR 19:33
141  Sophie Connor SR 20:09
188  Natasha Bernal SO 20:17
288  Alex Buck FR 20:32
355  Kathryn Fluehr SR 20:40
445  Kendall Kelly SO 20:50
722  Kieran Casey JR 21:14
802  Kyoko Koyama JR 21:18
National Rank #12 of 344
Mountain Region Rank #2 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 98.7%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 10.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 39.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 89.8%


Regional Champion 0.5%
Top 5 in Regional 98.8%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Alice Wright Calli Thackery Sophie Connor Natasha Bernal Alex Buck Kathryn Fluehr Kendall Kelly Kieran Casey Kyoko Koyama
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/30 442 19:17 19:35 20:09 20:30 20:29 20:37 20:58 20:59
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 21:30 21:12
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 368 19:12 19:29 20:02 20:13 20:28 20:39 20:55
Mountain West Championship 10/28 362 19:17 19:25 20:05 20:09 20:51 20:46 20:27 21:02 21:27
Mountain Region Championships 11/11 452 19:16 19:42 20:27 20:11 20:28 20:53 21:27





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 98.7% 12.4 368 0.1 1.0 2.0 3.4 4.2 4.5 5.7 7.3 6.0 5.5 6.4 6.8 6.1 6.6 5.5 4.3 4.0 4.1 3.5 3.2 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.7 98 0.5 56.3 25.9 11.4 4.8 1.0 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alice Wright 100% 6.0 9.6 10.3 8.2 8.4 7.3 6.3 5.7 4.6 4.2 3.3 3.2 2.5 2.2 1.6 2.6 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.6 1.1 0.7
Calli Thackery 99.9% 23.6 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.7 1.8 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.6
Sophie Connor 98.7% 116.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Natasha Bernal 98.7% 141.6
Alex Buck 98.7% 184.6
Kathryn Fluehr 98.7% 200.3
Kendall Kelly 98.7% 217.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alice Wright 1.2 46.8 18.9 12.6 7.0 6.0 4.1 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Calli Thackery 5.1 2.9 12.0 11.0 11.1 11.9 8.8 10.3 5.9 5.9 4.6 3.6 3.3 2.6 2.0 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Sophie Connor 22.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.6 1.3 1.9 2.6 2.0 2.9 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.7 4.5 4.3 3.3 4.2 4.4
Natasha Bernal 27.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.6 2.0 1.3 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.1 3.3 3.7 4.0 3.5 4.2
Alex Buck 39.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.3
Kathryn Fluehr 45.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1
Kendall Kelly 53.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.5% 100.0% 0.5 0.5 1
2 56.3% 100.0% 56.3 56.3 2
3 25.9% 100.0% 16.7 5.6 2.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 25.9 3
4 11.4% 100.0% 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 11.4 4
5 4.8% 93.7% 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 4.5 5
6 1.0% 15.8% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.2 6
7 0.3% 16.7% 0.1 0.3 0.1 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 98.7% 0.5 56.3 16.7 9.4 5.4 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.4 56.8 41.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Baylor 99.2% 2.0 2.0
Iowa State 99.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Mississippi 95.3% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 92.0% 2.0 1.8
Yale 92.0% 1.0 0.9
San Francisco 89.3% 1.0 0.9
BYU 86.9% 1.0 0.9
Utah 84.5% 2.0 1.7
Harvard 74.3% 1.0 0.7
Penn 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Villanova 62.9% 1.0 0.6
Boise State 60.0% 2.0 1.2
UCLA 54.6% 1.0 0.5
Minnesota 31.9% 2.0 0.6
California 28.9% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 22.0% 1.0 0.2
SMU 16.3% 1.0 0.2
Wisconsin 14.5% 1.0 0.1
Air Force 8.9% 2.0 0.2
Alabama 7.3% 1.0 0.1
Vanderbilt 6.1% 2.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.4% 1.0 0.0
Syracuse 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Texas 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Florida State 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 16.8
Minimum 10.0
Maximum 23.0